Subtitle:

Książka = Book ; KS/9/2011/T1P14

Publisher:

Instytut Badań Systemowych. Polska Akademia Nauk ; Systems Research Institute. Polish Academy of Sciences

Place of publishing:

Warszawa

Description:

[1-4], 159-173 pages ; 21 cm ; Bibliography p. 173

Type of object:

Book/Chapter

Abstract:

Human intelligence is able to solve problems with high amount of uncertainty. Also artificial intelligence tries to solve similar problems. Towards realizing this aim it uses probability theory (PrTh), fuzzy set theory, possibility theory, Dempster-Shafer theory, info-gap theory, etc. PrTh as the oldest one (XVII century) seems to be a ripe and well grounded scientific method. However, according to many opinions, it is not true. In this paper the author shows that the basic and commonly used formula for calculation probability of an event A, p(A) = nA/n, is both qualitatively and quantitatively rather incorrect. This formula was suggested by the frequency interpretation of probability. Furthermore, the author presents the evidential completeness interpretation of probability that seems better suited to describe uncertainty. This interpretation explains why in most cases probability cannot be determined precisely and that only an uncertainty interval of probability can be found.

Relation:

Książka = Book

Detailed Resource Type:

Book

Resource Identifier:

oai:rcin.org.pl:206773

Source:

KS-2011-09-T1P14

Language:

eng

Language of abstract:

eng

Rights:

Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 license

Terms of use:

Copyright-protected material. [CC BY 4.0] May be used within the scope specified in Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 license, full text available at: ; -

Digitizing institution:

Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences

Original in:

Library of Systems Research Institute PAS

Projects co-financed by:

Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.

Access:

Open