This publication is protected and can be accessed only from certain IPs.
This publication is protected and can be accessed only from certain IPs.

Title: Predicting densities of wintering redshank Tringa totanus from estuary characteristics: a method for assessing the likely impact of habitat change


Acta Ornithologica, vol. 35, no. 1 ; Prognozowanie zagęszczeń zimujących brodźców krwawodziobych w oparciu o charakterystykę estuariów - szkicowanie oddziaływania zmian środowiskowych ; Densities of wintering redshank and estuary characteristics


Polska Akademia Nauk. Muzeum i Instytut Zoologii ; Meeting of the European Ornithologists' Union (2 ; 1999 ; Gdańsk)


Muzeum i Instytut Zoologii PAN

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Referat wygłoszony na Second Meeting of the European Ornithologists' Union ; Bibliogr. p. 31-32 ; P. [25]-32 : ill. ; 27 cm ; Abstract in Polish. Taxa in Latin


The UK's estuaries are internationally important for wintering waterfowl and yet these habitats are subject to a range of pressures. For example, some 88% of them have been affected by landclaim. This stress to estuaries will be compounded by global climate change, which will lead to sea level rise. It would be valuable, therefore, to be able to predict the likely impact of such pressures on waterfowl using estuaries. This paper presents a method, based on environmental variables that can easily be collected, which allows the effect of habitat change on densities of wintering waterfowl to be predicted for individual estuaries. The application of the methodology is demonstrated in detail for Redshank. Waterfowl counts were carried out two hours either side of low tide over two winters at 27 estuarine sites in Britain. The sediment classification was obtained from the interpretation of airborne or satellite thematic imagery. The morphology of each site was measured largely from maps. A combination of estuary length, estuary width, tidal range and longitude describe 87% of the variance in the whole estuary Redshank densities. A model based on sediment, the proportion of mud in estuaries, explained 48% of the variance. The suspected reasons behind the higher predictive potential of the former model are discussed. Two examples of the use of these models in predicting the likely effects of human developments on waterfowl populations are demonstrated. Further development of the models is suggested which would allow them to be applied to an important conservation issue, global climate change.


Acta Ornithologica





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MiIZ PAN, call no. P.257, Vol. 35, No 1 ; MiIZ PAN, call no. P.4568, Vol. 35, No 1 ; click here to follow the link


eng ; pol


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Copyright-protected material. Access only on terminals at the Museum and Institute of Zoology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, may be used within the limits of statutory user freedoms.

Digitizing institution:

Museum and Institute of Zoology of the Polish Academy of Sciences

Original in:

Library of the Museum and Institute of Zoology of the Polish Academy of Sciences

Projects co-financed by:

Programme Innovative Economy, 2010-2014, Priority Axis 2. R&D infrastructure ; European Union. European Regional Development Fund



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